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Expert Confirms Farmers’ Rule: Mid-August Often Determines Weather for Weeks

A farmer's saying suggests that a weather change in August lasts for two weeks.
A traditional farming saying suggests that a weather change in August lasts for two weeks. Photo: GettyImages/BeritK
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August 16, 2026, 7:37 am | Read time: 3 minutes

The Feast of the Assumption has been considered a date of special significance in rural weather observation for centuries. A well-known farmer’s saying goes: “As the weather is on Assumption Day, so it may remain for two more weeks.” Fittingly, current forecasts in many places point to a change in the weather. But can the weather around August 15 really tell us anything about the development of the coming weeks? myHOMEBOOK asked meteorologist Jörg Riemann about this.

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What’s Behind the Farmer’s Saying About the Feast of the Assumption

This farmer’s saying warrants a look at the days around August 15. According to it, the weather on the Feast of the Assumption provides a hint about how the coming weeks will develop. If the weather is stable or changes at this time, this character is said to persist for a while, according to the folk wisdom.

Related: “If August is hot and dry …”

Is the Farmer’s Saying About the Feast of the Assumption True?

“The saying is actually surprisingly often true,” Riemann explains. Studies have shown that around mid-August, there is often a lasting change in the weather. The reason for this is not a coincidence but the development of the seasons. The sun is noticeably losing strength, the nights are getting longer, and the atmosphere is gradually reacting to the decreasing radiation. “With a 75 percent probability, the weather changes in August and then stays that way for two weeks,” the expert adds.

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This Is the Weather for the Rest of August

After the recent heatwave, a new weather phase is emerging in Germany. While it will remain summery warm in many places, the exceptionally high temperatures are likely to be over for now.

“The peak of summer is over. It will simply be changeable, and temperatures will be moderate,” Riemann explains. Instead of prolonged heat, he expects more frequent clouds, occasional rain, and overall more balanced temperatures in the coming weeks.

In the north, temperatures will mostly range between 22 and 25 degrees Celsius, while in the south, they will often be between 25 and just under 30 degrees, according to Riemann. “It’s not that it will always be cold,” the weather expert emphasizes. Rather, a “normal summer” is to be expected.

However, there is no talk of an early autumn. The expert already sees signs of friendlier and warmer weather for early September. “Sometime in early September, late summer will arrive,” Riemann predicts. Those who still have vacation can look forward to it.

What Does the Weather Mean for Our Plants?

For plants in the garden and on the balcony, the coming weather means relief. If there are heavy rains, special attention should be paid to cultivated vegetables such as tomatoes. If they receive too much water in a short time, they may burst and need to be harvested and consumed quickly.

This article is a machine translation of the original German version of MYHOMEBOOK and has been reviewed for accuracy and quality by a native speaker. For feedback, please contact us at info@myhomebook.de.

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