September 4, 2026, 11:28 am | Read time: 3 minutes
September is considered a transitional month between summer and fall. While the days noticeably shorten, late summer temperatures are not uncommon. Warm spells often make the onset of fall barely noticeable. Such weather patterns have long intrigued not only meteorologists but also folklorists. A well-known farmer’s saying goes: “September warmth now and then indicates a harsh winter.” But is there any truth to this weather lore? myHOMEBOOK asked a weather expert.
What’s Behind the Farmer’s Saying About Warm Days in September
The farmer’s saying “September warmth now and then indicates a harsh winter” does not refer to a consistently warm month, according to Jörg Riemann from the Wettermanufaktur. “Now and then” refers to occasional warm and sunny days, especially around mid-month. The key is that the warmth is only temporary and is followed by more autumnal weather. If the entire September is unusually mild, another saying applies: “If September is mild, winter will be a child,” indicating a milder winter. For the “harsh winter” rule, September warmth should be temporary, not prolonged.
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Is the Farmer’s Saying True?
According to the meteorologist, the saying has indeed been studied. Following an above-average sunny and warm period in September, about 60 percent of the time, a winter with an above-average number of frost days in January and February followed. “The rule holds true in two out of three cases,” says Riemann. He also notes that further weather developments play a role. For example, October could still influence the trend. Therefore, a reliable winter forecast cannot be derived from the saying; it can only be seen as a hint of a colder winter.
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What Weather to Expect in the Coming Days
Those hoping for a longer late summer phase will have to be patient, according to the expert. While it will become milder in many places over the weekend and at the start of the week, more autumnal weather will soon return. In the north, a cold front with gusty winds and isolated showers will bring unsettled weather on Saturday. On Sunday and Monday, temperatures will rise again there. In the south, the warm air will linger a bit longer, potentially bringing late summer temperatures until Tuesday, according to Riemann. By the middle of next week, however, this will come to an end. “It has to end sometime; fall is just around the corner,” says the expert. Afterward, expect autumnal temperatures, although an Indian summer later in September could bring some pleasant and mild days.
What the Weather Means for the Garden
The announced weather changes will benefit many plants in the garden. The soil is still relatively warm after the summer, while temperatures gradually drop. This creates good conditions for planting perennials, shrubs, and spring bloomers that should root before winter. Occasional late summer warmth can also aid the ripening of apples, pears, or pumpkins. As the weather gradually shifts to more autumnal conditions, it’s also time to prepare the garden for the upcoming cold season.