November 6, 2026, 10:00 am | Read time: 3 minutes
Can the weather in November already reveal what winter will be like? At least that’s what an old farmer’s saying suggests: “If November is cold and clear, January will be mild and overcast.” But how much truth is there to this weather wisdom? And what conclusions can be drawn from the current weather situation? myHOMEBOOK asked a weather expert.
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The Meaning Behind the Farmer’s Saying
“The idea behind the farmer’s saying ‘If November is cold and clear, January will be mild and overcast’ is this: If November is already very cold and has clear nights, meaning it is under high-pressure influence, then winter has often already expended its ‘strength.’ The actual winter, meaning December and January, tends to be milder and wetter,” explains Jörg Riemann from the Wettermanufaktur.
Is This Farmer’s Saying True?
“This saying is one of the best-known and it indeed has a kernel of truth. In about seven out of ten years, or roughly 70 percent of the cases, it holds true,” Riemann explains.
So, it can be said that this farmer’s saying is not just a folk wisdom but is based on long-term weather observations that have been confirmed over generations. If November is cold and clear, meaning under high-pressure influence, the following January tends to be milder and wetter.
Also interesting: Garden tasks to tackle in November
Does the Farmer’s Saying About a Cold, Clear November Apply This Year?
No, this year the farmer’s saying does not apply according to the current status, the expert explains. Although it will temporarily get colder and frost can occur at night in many regions, the weather expert does not expect a prolonged cold spell or an early winter. “Over the course of next week, it will get milder again,” says Riemann. “So much so that overall, November will turn out to be mild.”
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How the Weather Develops in November
By the weekend, it will initially become significantly colder. The risk of frost increases, especially at night. “The risk is widespread across Germany,” explains weather expert Jörg Riemann. Exceptions are mainly regions along the Rhine and the coast, “where the water still provides warmth.” It can become frosty in many places, especially on Saturday and Sunday mornings.
However, the cold does not last long. “Over the course of next week, it will get milder again,” says Riemann. The reason is milder air from the Atlantic. Rain is also moving in: From Sunday or Monday, increasing low-pressure influence from the southwest will bring precipitation. Initially, the south will be particularly wet. Summarizing the further development, Riemann states: “Overall, it is too warm and too wet.”
What the Weather Means for the Garden
With frosty nights over the weekend, it’s time to prepare the garden for winter. Non-hardy and frost-sensitive plants, in particular, should now be protected or, if possible, moved to a suitable winter location. Garden water supply should also be monitored: Outdoor faucets should be turned off and frost-prone pipes should be drained as completely as possible. This prevents any remaining water from freezing, expanding, and damaging pipes or fittings during frost.